Monday, May 7, 2012

MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN

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Macroeconomic Design is a New Science in Banking, Economics, and Finance.
I am seeking followers that may contribute to this science.

http://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com

Of 40 schools of economics studied by my colleague Timothy Hosking, no other school deals effectively with financial stability and the removal of consequent behaviour change and unwanted crises.

The principles are listed below in section 5.

EDWARD C D INGRAM, the founder of this school of economics may be contacted by email at edward.ingram2009@gmail.com.

DR JOHN PELHAM AT president@bwwsociety.org has another WEBSITE on ideas that may change the world is managed by Dr Pelham and contains an article written by myself entitled 'Replacing Fixed Interest Bonds'.

Since 1st May 2019, a WhatsApp research and development group has been operating. It is NOT a chat shop. There are strict rules - see section 6 below. Members can be anonymous if they need to avoid the appearance of representing their government, university, business, or other organisation.

We are becoming influential and are seeking to add to the current membership consisting of top academics, practitioners, government officials, and students, from around the world. 


Read PEER REVIEWS. Some say this is a new school of thought / school of economics. One person has written a COMPARISON between this and other mainstream schools of economics such as Keynsian Economics and Monetary Economics. All are valid work but we come out with special advantages.

MANDATORY STUDY
Prospective new members are now required to study this Home page and to view the 22 minute You Tube video entitled "Explaining the ILS Mortgage Model for Housing Finance." Like the Wright Brothers who were the first to fly, they, and we, unlike universities and others, are not funded, so the video is not professionally done but the content is there. It still 'flies', but there are many successful tests that are not shown on the video. A crude test version, re-invented by two Cambridge University academics has been operating in Turkey for two decades.

Finally a six page paper, obtainable from Edward, on 'Replacing Fixed Interest Bonds' and filed as an essay on 'Wealth Bonds' is mandatory pre-membership reading. 

The mandatory studies are to bring prospective new members up to speed, and to ensure that members do not waste the time of other members by straying from the current topic.

CURRENT SUCCESS
The ILS Mortgage model, and a variant for commercial loans, together with Wealth Bonds, can remove two root causes of financial instablity. The ILS model can stabilise up to one third of an economy, (the consrtuction sector and related industries), taking out boom and bust that accounts for two thrids of all recessions. Replacing fixed interest bonds with Wealth Bonds can remove over US$50 Trillions worth of financially unsafe and unstable savings, reserves, pension funds, and debt world-wide. Cutting risk cuts costs for all concerned. The provision of safe reserves is essential to an orderly economy.

Governments that borrow using Wealth Bonds will not have to pay a risk premium on their debt unless they are downrated below AAA by the rating agencies; and they will not have to constantly roll over their debts every year. Wealth Bonds can be long term as well as cheap and affordable, but this is not intended to encourage excessive debt sovereign (government) debt. Later in the course, the group will look at a new way to reduce the ratio of 'debt: GDP', both private debt and Sovereign (government) debt. All members can contribute and all need to be critical of any errors that they see in draft papers that are generated, prior to publication.

LIBERATING MONETARY POLICY
Taken together ILS Mortgages and the introduction of Wealth Bonds can remove the biggest obstacles faced by central banks when changing interest rates. The third obstacle is the unwanted effect on the value of currencies. When interest rates are raised to slow an overheating economy it does not mean that the currency needs to rise in value so as to make exporting less profitable and exporters less competitive. But that is what usually happens.

ANONYMOUS
The above (and below) reading is intended to bring you up to speed before joining. Members can be anonymous if they need to avoid the appearance of representing their government, university, business, or other organisation.


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Macroeconomic Design
 Research and 
Development Group

New Membership’s ‘Need to Know’


CONTACT:
Group Administrator: Edward C D Ingram – He has the power to add and to remove members for repeated violations of the code of conduct.
Admin WhatsApp call number: +263 772 900 000
Email: edward.ingram2009@gmail.com SKYPE ID: edwarding2. Physical address: variable.
Principal Researcher: As above: E C D INGRAM.
Table of Contents
1. GROUP OBJECTIVES
2. SOME KEY POINTS 
3. GROUP METHOD 
4. LIST OF TOPICS 
5. THEOREMS IN USE 
6.  CODE OF CONDUCT 

1. GROUP OBJECTIVES

1.1 To further develop this new science as a group activity, and to lobby governments to learn and implement any one of the recommended changes. There are nearly 200 governments to choose from. Just one will do to get us started.

1.2 To teach the new science to those members that wish to learn rather than to contribute – but having said that, there is no such thing as a stupid question. If you did not understand, speak up because you are likely to be one of many.

1.3 To create a better world economy by adding this new knowledge for the benefit of governments and financial institutions. Everyone should be better off because, in a complex economy / system doing one thing wrong causes many problems all over the system. If we can identify the key wrong doing and change that one thing, many previously intractable problems and unwanted symptoms simply valnish as if they had never existed. Everyone benefits. This is a powerful science.

2. SOME KEY POINTS

2.1 It has been observed that the world’s economies are unsafe for savings and for borrowing / lending and that there are other financial instabilities that cause concern not only to this group but to the general population of economists, policy makers, and other practitioners.

2.2 With that in mind we seek to find root causes and ways to remove them regardless of the impediments that may lie in the way. There are  a number of financially destabilising traditional practices, rules and regulations, and taxation practices. All of these are man made. Any of them can be changed.

3. GROUP METHOD

3.1 It is important to have a list of topics for research and discussion and to avoid wasting the time of participants by dealing with unlisted topics or topics that are not on the current agenda.

3.1.1 Exceptions are made when there is a particular problem being experienced in a particular nation and where the knowledge that we have so far gained as a group that might currently be used by that nation.

3.2 Topics will be dealt with one topic at a time in the order given in #4.

3.3 When a topic has been completed or taken far enough to be completed / tidied up later by practitioners, a paper on that topic will be circulated to all members that have subscribed to the Newsletter. At present we are waiting for the IT skills needed to issue a Newsletter. Offers are needed. For example:

3.3.1 There are some technical problems to understand on how to create the Newsletter so as to avoid being spammed, and to allow members to subscribe and to unsubscribe. If you know what needs to be done please let Mr. Ingram know.

It’s a New Science in Economics, Banking, and Finance

4. LIST OF TOPICS

1 “Explaining the ILS Mortgage Model for Housing Finance” – completed as a You Tube Video of 22 minutes. It is available through a search for that title on You Tube. It is not professionally created but the information is there. The key facts are seen at the end.
2 Wealth Bonds – Replacing Fixed Interest Bonds – completed as a six page document. This is available on request.

Prospective new members need to make themselves familiar with the topics already covered. Namely, the above topics1 and 2.

Between them these two topics / proposed solutions can clear away much of the conflicting signals faced by central banks when they are managing interest rates. The usual pile of damage to businesses, to lenders, to savings, and the behaviour change caused by that damage and that usually further damages the economy will be almost insignificant. That leaves the currency instability issue which we are currently discussing.

3 Explaining how the above two changes can facilitate Monetary Policy. This is fairly obvious. No paper has been issued on this. One may be issued later. On request we can assist any government with steps to take if their goal is to implement these proposals or to normalise interest rates. See this link for further information on dealing with super-low interest rates.

4 Currency Stability – can we include the use of market prices to automate the best use of resources? See principle #5.1 below.

MANAGEMENT INSTRUMENTS
Here we borrow from well understood principles used by engineers that design stable and well managed complex systems like aircraft for example.
5 Money is created by Central Banks
6 Central Bank customers are National Treasury and Commercial Banks
7 Commercial Banks can multiply deposits putting new money into circulation. Bad idea. 
8 Lend deposits only once – Now there’s a shortage of money.
9 Hold Deposit auctions to fill the gap – Optimise the use of credit using market rates.

MANAGING THE ECONOMY
10 The right amount of money – manages inflation.
11 Where to release new money – Banks lend it – People spend it – Governments spend it.
12 Manage the Debt / GDP Ratio.
13 Have the right amount of Forex.

FRAUD AND MONEY LAUNDERING
14 NICHe – National Investment Clearing House: Enabling secure, fast, free, money transfers. Minimal administration. No fraud. Once in, no further repeat money laundering questions are needed. The source and the destination of the investment monies are both known. This can save the world a few trillions p.a. in administrative costs, fraud, and delays.

NOTE: Most of the research work has been done on the above-listed topics. But the ideas need to be examined and accepted or modified by the group. The most under-researched topic is the currency instability one.

5. THEOREMS IN USE


5.1 OPTIMISING THE USE OF A RESOURCE
Using free market clearing prices. The clearing price is the price at which the supply is just enough to satisfy the demand. No resources are wasted making more, and no one is kept waiting. When there is a limited quantity of something, for example credit, or minerals, people (which includes business people) compete for the use of it. Those that can provide end products that are in great demand can sell those end products at a price that is profitable. Those are the suppliers that are the most able to pay the market price for the credit and minerals or the scarce component parts that they need. Then they are able to provide the world’s consumers with the devices, food, and services and other end products that they most want to spend their money on. Those others that do not wish to, or cannot afford the market price, will not acquire much, if any, of the resource in question.

5.2 INTERFACE WITH GOVERNMENT
The role of governments is to pass laws and regulations that get them elected, having decided what resources they need to capture and how much revenue they need in order to do so. This is their role. They may interfere with market forces but there is always a price. That is why they hire experts to advise them on cost-effective governance.

5.3 COMPLEX SYSTEMS THEOREM
5.3.1 In any complex system such as an economy, an aeroplane, a production line, or a human body, if any one part of the system is causing problems, the entire system is at risk and may be affected. Symptoms can occur in many places. Addressing the symptoms can produce a new set of problems. It is important to remove the root cause so that all of the many unwanted and harmful symptoms just disappear as if they had never existed. This is what we are doing. It explains why people are frequently astonished at the benefits.

5.3.2 Where policy makers go wrong is that they fear to deal with the root cause because they do not know what it is; and they are afraid of the social and political fall-out that is happening from the symptoms. They need to be seen to be dealing with those symptoms even if it means taking from ‘here’ and giving help ‘there.’ This is costly because it leaves the source problems in place and it creates more uncertainty than there was before among those most likely to be the losers from government interventions.

5.3.3 Our task as a group is to identify the root causes and to assist governments with getting the needed changes implemented. There are two main problems: a) depth of knowledge b) the courage to make such changes. Try small steps or small experiments.

5.4 CONFIDENCE
Making the best use of a nation’s resources requires investment in production. Investors are looking to make profits, often some years ahead, after the initial investment has been made. They need financial stability so that they can have the confidence needed to invest. It is the same with people: if their savings and jobs are at risk they change to self protection mode. They save more and they spend less. Providers lose the profits they were hoping for. Everyone is worse off. Financial stability is what we are aiming to create.

5.5 DESIGN PRINCIPLES
When engineers are asked to create an aeroplane the first task they face is to design the airframe in such a way that it can more or less automate its responses to changing wind and other atmospheric conditions. Trainee pilots are told, “If you are scared and do not know what to do, let go of the controls.” The plane will usually correct itself. That is not always the case but it is the way that the airframes are designed to behave as far as possible. This is also the way that we think about macroeconomic design. If the financial framework is right there will be little left for the ‘pilots’ (managers of the economy) to do. Most responses will be automated, as happens when market forces decide who should get the use of scarce resources, but always allowing government to intervene when there is a social need involved.

5.6 ACTING LIKE CIVIL SERVANTS
As a research group we must stay out of politics and work as if we are civil servants, acting to advise governments on the best way to go.

5.7 One way to gain the confidence needed is to bring government officials and ministers into this WhatsApp Group in their private capacity. They may do so anonymously if that helps.

6. CODE OF CONDUCT

6.0 The most common problem we have is that a minority of members treat this as a chat group. It is not a chat group. It is for organised researches, teaching, and learning. So STAY ON TOPIC. Treat it as a classroom where you may both learn and contribute. As in any classroom, topics are taken in the same order as the text book – in this case in the order of the list of topics given above in #4. The aim is to create a new model or new options for the structure of the world’s economies. Such new models inevitably behave differently from economies with which we are all familiar because they have new rules, regulations, and taxes, and sometimes new structures. If we have done our job, all of these will be designed scientifically, based on well accepted principles, and in ways that aim to create optimum output, minimal risk to participants, and a minimum need for interventions.

6.1 GOVERNMENT INTERFACE
6.1.1This is a research and development group. It does not interfere in any way with government functions or rights. When a government decides to do something else, that is their choice. As already stated, we stay out of politics. We do not deal with corruption.
6.1.2 The group works in the same way that civil servants do. Our members include civil servants. We are there to fact-find and to draw the attention of the world’s governments to what matters through our members and our publications.

STAY ON TOPIC
6.3 Members that repeatedly deviate far away from the topic under discussion or repeatedly change the topic waste time. That irritates key members of the group. Because of this, offenders may be removed from the group by administration. We have some highly respected academics and others in this group. They cannot afford to waste their time. We need to keep them.

6.3.1 A CHAT GROUP - The suggestion has been made to create a separate chat group for those members that want to chatter on the sidelines. Those that are interested in this idea may ask Edward to form that group for members.

6.4 Be Polite.

6.6 Explain any abbreviations that you use such as IMF – International Monetary Fund.

6.7 Provide evidence for any assertions that you make.


6.8 Try not to make multiple points or address more than one issue in a single sentence or even in a single paragraph. Members will get confused and the discussion that follows will be less productive.

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COPYRIGHT: Provided that you acknowledge the authors, that you fairly represent the views expressed and that you credit the Macro-economic Design Research Group (and where relevant any original source of the article in question) with due prominence, you may freely quote from articles on this website.
CONTACT
Edward C D Ingram travels a lot
Tel:+26329 2230487 at times 
Cell: +263772900 000 at times but +27 749660660 at other times
WhatsApp 00263 722 900 000 at all times
Skype: edwarding2 any time.
email: edward.ingram2009@gmail.com
Google Hangouts: edward.ingram2009@gmail.com

Edward is available for seminar/workshop presentations


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