BOOK SUMMARY


How to End World Economic and Political Chaos
And Simplify Everything
A book as intriguing as it sounds - The logic is compelling.
Now everyone can see exactly where their personal and business problems are coming from.

Copyright © IngramSure (UK) Ltd – all rights reserved.

Front cover picture - Edward C D Ingram

BISAC
BUS039000  BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / Macroeconomics
This book takes macro-economics to the next level
BUS001010  BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Accounting / Financial
BUS045000  BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Money & Monetary Policy
POL034000  POLITICAL SCIENCE / Peace

This Second Edition: 2017
ISBN - awaited
First edition Title:
WHAT IS THE INGRAM SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS?
AND WHY IS IT ESSENTIAL?
First edition ISBN 978-0-7974-8870-0

Self-Published – Available from leading bookshops or by contacting the author.
Contact:
Skype: edwarding2
Email: eingram@ingramsure.com

--------------------------------------------
I, the author, Edward C D Ingram, assisted by Riekie Cloete and others mentioned in the acknowledgements, am pleased to announce that I have written a book entitled ‘What is the Ingram School of Economics? And Why is it Essential?’

The second edition has been re-named as above:

HOW TO END THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL CHAOS
Based on the Ingram School of Economics - A New Macroeconomic Design

It is the first book on economics to get really scientific about understanding the dynamics of economies and where it is all going wrong.

Economies consist of people wanting to buy goods and services from one another and so they are naturally inclined towards full use of all resources including full employment up to the level that people are comfortable working. Given the money and its affordability as needed, they will tend to achieve this state of affairs.

SCOPE
On the financial framework, it only deals with the dynamics of prices, which includes costs and asset values, all of which may be affected by the changing value of money.

It is not concerned with most other things which may have an impact on prices such as monopolies and politics.

On the management side it deals with providing the instruments and the targets to aim at.

PRINCIPLES APPLIED ON THE FRAMEWORK SIDE

#1 The book identifies a theoretical platform called KFPP which stands for Keynes’ Floating Platform Paradigm. It is an imaginary platform in which, taking some words from Keynes’ Paper of 1923 entitled ‘A Tract on Monetary Reform.’ Keynes wrote in words to the effect that if money halved in value and all prices and incomes, asset values and costs, along with all forms of revenues / incomes were to double, people would be wholly unaffected.

In other words, if all prices, incomes, assets and costs, were to be placed upon the KFPP platform, (let’s ignore grammar and call it the KFPP platform), then there would not be the kind of wealth redistribution, confusion, costs, postponed investments, destroyed plans, businesses and homes, and the distrust which affects almost every financial plan being made today.

From this KFPP concept we get a list of prices, costs, and values, to look at and see what is causing the deviations that take them off the KFPP platform.

Here is the list, copied directly from the book:
1.      Savings, Pensions, and Lending Contracts - their cost per month and the value of the contracts including annuity payments, bond maturity values, the monthly cost of home loan repayments, and that of commercial debt repayments
2.      Interest rates – this is the cost (price) of credit and the means to restore the value of savings and loan accounts
3.      Incomes - the cost (price) of hiring people
4.      The cost (price) of imports - a free market in the trading currency is needed to balance trade, and thereby to adjust the value of the currency to the falling value of money. This is also needed to optimize the use of the international resources of goods and services.
5.      The price of international capital - there has to be a balance between the demand by nationals to exchange their local capital currency for foreign capital currency coming from other countries and the demand by foreign entities to exchange their currencies for the local / national currency. The price must adjust to create that balance. This has to be a separate market in currency. There is no such thing as 'one price fits both markets.'
Currency trading is an issue to discuss to the extent that it has an impact on volatility and liquidity.
-----------------------------------
#2 THE FREE MARKET PRINCIPLE is then applied to re-design these markets and contracts where they are circumscribed today and not allowed to do what they need to do to stay on the KFPP platform.

The free market principle has three aspects of importance:
I)                   Any price, cost, or value, which fails to rise in price to offset the falling value of money becomes relatively cheap and so the increased level of demand will tend to push that price, cost or value, back onto the platform.
II)                There are exceptions to this and all prices do not rise immediately so it is important that the rate of inflation / devaluation of money remains low.
III)              When a price is at the free market level, it means that only those people / entities which are most in need of that resource, or those most able to afford that resource, will be able to buy it. Thus, a free market price optimises the use of the resource.

#3 Once we achieve a re-design of items listed above, (1 to 5 inclusive), in the pricing part of an economy, we will have removed the sources of a great many problems which show up as financial instability.

It is the equivalent of designing an airframe which flies on its own without the need for a pilot except that a pilot gives it direction and manages the aircraft generally.

Unless the airframe is well designed it will not be possible for any pilot to fly the aircraft in a way that keeps the passengers comfortable. There will not be enough instruments available to manage all of the errors created by the unstable flight, and pilot training will take forever.

In the case of an economy there will be a multiplicity of problems and not enough information or enough instruments available to do a good management job.

But with a self-adjusting pricing model, very little data will be needed to steer the economy, and the management system will be relatively simple. It will largely be a matter of looking to see where inflation and national output are headed.

#4 COMPLEX SYSTEMS
The number of problems which the resulting proposed changes can solve, appears, at first sight, to be far beyond reasonable expectations. Economies are complex systems. Even when it is clear why this happens many high-ranking economists don't feel comfortable with this. That was the experience of a high-level review panel of just the first part of this overall study in 2004 whose membership is given in the acknowledgements of the book, but they finally agreed that no one could find any fault. It was then accepted. Other economists realise that there are fundamental flaws being addressed, and they get increasingly excited the more they read.

COMPLEX SYSTEMS THEOREM

There is a theorem which explains the simplification which is generated. Edward Ingram calls this the Complex Systems Theorem. “Remove the source of a problem in a complex system, and generations of knock-on effects disappear. Multiple problems which had always appeared to be intractable, simply vanish as if they had never existed.”
First identify the source problem, (in this case a lack of free market pricing), and then remove it. Allow free market pricing to operate. The benefits are mind-bending. This analysis, that of the Ingram School, demonstrates that the need to do this is financially, economically, and politically compelling because the cost of doing nothing is too great.
Try looking at this the other way around. We allow one thing to be priced incorrectly, like the cost of home loan repayments which jump around, and we get all kinds of problems. There are problems with house prices, home repossessions, collateral security, bank viability…and then we get interventions which draw funds from ‘here’ and put them ‘there’ causing more uncertainty to those who lose out. The political ramifications go on and on. Then add another wrong pricing mechanism and you get another cascade of confusion and complexity. In this analysis, we identify up to five things like this, five wrong forks in the road taken by economics, which can be addressed. How complicated do you want the economy, and the associated human behaviour changes in self-defence, to be?
#5 MANAGEMENT ISSUES
In order to have a free market price of credit, the banking system needs to be changed. The book explains that this will leave management with the task of creating the right amount of debt-based money (for lending) and the right amount of debt-free money for government spending or donating into the economy.

Freedom of choice allows people to vary:

  1. ·         How much they save / spend down from savings
  2. ·         How much they borrow /repay
  3. ·         How much they import / export


All of these choices vary over time. They cause undulations in the aggregate level of spending, the level of spending in some sectors, and the stock of spendable money in circulation.

The management function is to step aside and allow these undulations to take place within limits. The limit / boundary is hit when there is a threat of a downwards spiral as the reduced spending raises unemployment which reduces spending further and affects the government’s revenues and expenditure.

Two responses are needed, both being aimed at maintaining the stock of spending money in circulation and in maintaining or restoring the level of spending as far as is practical in every sector: more credit based money will reduce interest rates, and more spending by everyone will be generated by an injection of debt-free money. More money may be needed anyway and any excess spending created will be mopped up in higher prices, costs, and values without doing great damage, re-distributing wealth, or causing confusion.

MANAGING THE STOCK OF MONEY

  • When bank lending reduces, the stock of money in circulation reduces.
  • When taxation increases, the stock of money in circulation reduces unless the revenues are immediately spent. The tax revenue cycle also affects the stock of money in circulation in a seasonal fashion.


When a government borrows money by issuing bonds this should not be done, generally speaking, in order to balance the budget / close the gap between revenues and expenditure. Doing that crowds out the private sector and transfers ‘tax revenues’ from tax payers to the wealthy. There is a place for government bonds in providing safe savings, annuities, and reserves, as needed, when the private sector is unable to provide enough secure investments of that kind.

Instead, governments should ask the central bank to top up its bank account (held at the central / reserve bank) so that the needed expenditure may be funded without raising taxation and slowing the economy.

When that has been done and the economy is still spiralling down, or before spiralling down takes hold, the government / treasury should request the central bank to provide more debt-free money to give away to all spenders in the form of a reduction in sales taxes or other taxes and in the form of subsidies on untaxed spending of a regular nature. That might include regular loan repayments, regular savings, and regular donations for example.

This will stimulate spending by spenders in general.

It will not stimulate borrowing. To help that sector the central bank can issue more debt-based money in the sense that it auctions more deposits for lenders to bid for and to on-lend. This may reduce interest rates and make borrowing more attractive.

The stability of the economy will further encourage borrowing and additional spending.

A MANAGEMENT PRINCIPLE
The golden rule is to maintain government spending on what government spends and to maintain the spending of others on what they normally spend; or to facilitate that so that they can choose what to spend on.

At the same time, the money creating and distribution process will add to the stock of spending money in circulation. This needs to increase on a regular basis as the economy grows and as prices rise.

ALTERNATIVE CURRENCIES
Recently, Bit-Coin and other alternative ‘privately created’ monies have emerged. They are too small in quantity to worry economists or to affect the dynamics of economies very much at present. And they serve a purpose – getting around the inefficiencies and the unsafe nature of traditional savings which have been created by the authorities in charge. In the end, they will have to be restricted or banned as they may grow too large. Hopefully, the authorities will clean up their act and remove the need.

THE MONEY CREATION TARGET TO AIM AT

This is to have enough money in circulation at all times but not so much stimulus as to push the level of inflation uncomfortably high.

Having said that there is another scenario which does need a higher rate of inflation.

CREATING ECONOMIC MIRACLES – HIGH GROWTH

This is when there are plenty of under-utilised resources like the unemployed and the under-paid.
The problem is complex as the remedy can involve the provision of education, re-training, and infrastructure of many kinds.

It is known that the fastest way to grow such an economy is to fund small and medium enterprises, SMEs, through loan capital and/or donations. Large central banks do not have the right incentives to lend to SMEs as it can be less profitable. But small lenders set in the regions can do a good job.

As new money is created to fund these SMEs, the stock of money rises faster than national output. Increased output follows later. In the meantime, the rate of inflation can be relatively high. If the lending is done well, to the right entrepreneurs, this kind of inflation is a sign that the economy is growing very fast. [1]

SUMMARY
Economies consist of people wanting to buy goods and services from one another and so they are naturally inclined towards full use of all resources including full employment up to the level that people are comfortable working. Given the money and its affordability as needed, they will tend to achieve this state of affairs. Management involves money creation in a balanced way as between debt-based money – money for lending and debt-free money.

THE MANAGEMENT TARGETS ARE: 
  1. To avoid dependence upon debt to provide all of the money in circulation.
  2. 2.      To create debt-free money to fund the government deficit when necessary
  3. To stimulate spending in all sectors when necessary
  4. To avoid creating high levels of inflation but to accept a higher level of inflation to make way for an economy to grow fast when it has under-employed resources.


FUTURE BOOKS

This is Volume I of the series. This book gives this outline of what can be done about the problems.
Volume II will provide the mathematics which enables financial institutions to reform their contracts, subject to supporting changes in legislation and regulations.
Volume III will report on feedback coming in from readers and from:

The university course which is already on offer at www.nustcce.com under professional courses and named MACR-ECONOMIC DESIGN & MANAGEMENT. 

We are also expecting feedback from a television series being planned in Zimbabwe by the National Broadcasting Corporation.

Zimbabwe does not have its own currency and so it needs to know what to do when it does have its own currency. Without its own currency Zimbabwe cannot grow the economy very much. In fact, the economy can spiral down.[2]



[1] I am waiting for data evidence which has been promised
[2] A study which I read recently shows that economies without their own currencies grow more slowly than those with their own currencies based on a sample in South America, Europe, (where there are some exceptions caused by favoured status), and the USA where some states are in great difficulty. I will add the reference when found.

No comments: