Monday, May 7, 2012

MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN

CONTACT DETAILS - TWEETING ETC. - SEE END OF PAGE

A NEW PEER REVIEW


"This book could blow the doors off all schools of economics and stabilize the world's economies." - Alan Gray Editor and CEO at Newsblaze.

CALL FOR PAPERS = BANK OF BRAZIL for October conference.


Our jointly authored Submission is entitled:

'Financial Stability -  A New Way Forward' 

ABSTRACT
The way economies are designed, run, and managed, is inherently unstable. We can see that if account is taken of inflation and how the economy responds, these adjustments constantly create winners and losers. This is because the financial economy, consisting of contracts for savings and debt, regulations and taxation, along with the currency markets, is not being permitted to behave in the free market kind of way that it should. There is a solution which is to make the needed changes so the whole economy can behave in the way it is supposed to behave with market forces taking on their proper role.

This is Part 1 of the book. Part 2 is about management of the economies of nations. There are significant sructureal changes proposed to remove delays, tighten control, and eliminate the total dependence on debt, making stimuli come in a balanced way through money creation and deletion as needed.

INTRODUCTION
A Tract on Financial Stability
When J M Keynes wrote his ‘A tract on Monetary Policy. ‘ (Macmillan, 1923) the problems that economics faced at the time were two.
  1. The management of inflation.
  2. The management of, or the removal of, financial instability in the financial framework.
In his very first chapter, Keynes identified both problems. He wrote:

Money is only important for what it will procure. Thus a change in the monetary unit, which is uniform in its operation and affects all transactions equally, has no consequences.’

He identified Sovereign Debt as a financially unstable contract, with consequences. It re-distributes wealth. But instead of reforming the contract or suggesting any reform, he put this forward as a reason to manage the rate of inflation on the grounds that at high levels of inflation the re-distribution of wealth became faster.


Keynes did not write that the contract was at fault and that it ought to be changed. He did not write the other tract, on how to remove such financial instabilities. That task has been passed to us. This is the missing other tract.

What we now know, and what is demonstrated in this paper, is that as inflation reduces beyond a certain point the financial instability and the inequality of wealth distribution, of treasuries and of property finance rises. The value of treasuries inflates faster as interest rates fall; and the cost of housing finance reduces very fast at the same time, leading to an increasingly leveraged boost to the ‘loan: income’ multiple that also inflates property values.

If these assets, sovereign debt and property, are included in an inflation index of everything money can pay for / be exchanged for, and the cost of finance for property, as they all ought to be if calculating the value of money, this part of the index rises increasingly fast while the rest of the index, including National Average Earnings, NAE, rises in the usual way that goods and services and even rentals rise. There is no leverage and all prices and costs in the rest of the economy, (risk-related and perceived values such as equities excepted), are able to adjust in the same direction – up, not down and not leveraged. Everything else, except the value of the currency, adjusts equally.

Whereas, in this paper it is shown that if all three of these parts of the financial framework, debt, its monthly repayment costs, and the value of the currency, are redesigned to adjust prices and costs proportionately alongside all else, inflation can fall as far as zero without causing any disturbingly large quantity of that kind of financial instability.

The lower the rate of inflation the less disturbance there is because the adjustments needed get smaller and the lag in the adjustment process diminishes in its effect on inequality, which is what economists in general believe should be the case, but currently is not the case.

As J M Keynes wrote:

Money is only important for what it will procure. Thus a change in the monetary unit, which is uniform in its operation and affects all transactions equally, has no consequences.’

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THE STATE OF PLAY
The second edition of the new book...
HOW TO END THE WORLD'S FINANCIAL CHAOS
...is being drafted alongside a now completed script for webinars and presentations at events. This draft live presentation script is what triggered Alan Gray's above review.

OUTLINE
In outline it says that the failure to do inflation-accounting for savings and loans means that inflation-based capital growth is treated as expenditure on home loans and for government debt and commercial debt. This is why homes get repossessed as the cost of repayments leaps around. It is why lenders go under in a rash of repossessions and auctioned homes...it is why larger deposits are needed to protect lenders and it is why house prices inflate and deflate far more than they should.

This enlarges the business cycle and brings on recessions.

It is why investing mandatry reserves in government debt does not protect pension funds or lenders - the fixed rate of interest goes out of date as soon as interest rates rise so no one wants to buy that security until it has fallen in value to restore the return on capital. So the value of managed funds like pension funds falls and people lose out. The same with trust funds and the same for lenders that are all forced to buy these securities by legislation. There is no real protection given by the reserves. On the contrary.

There is no safe place for savings.

There can be and this has to be fixed.





I PROMISED TO PROVIDE SOME LINKS ON THIS PAGE 

HERE ARE THE LINKS:


#1  A quick look at THE BASIC THEORY tells you that something is drastically wrong with the world's economies. The instruments that transmit instructions to the economy as the policy makers pull their levers (like interest rate changes) can send the economy into all kinds of complications. If that happened in an aircraft it could easily crash.

The science of economics has been over-ruled in this way. But that can be changed.

 https://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com/p/basic-theory.html


#2  A VIDEO EXPLAINS SOME OF THE DISTORTIONS THAT ECONOMIES SUFFER - BUT NOT THE SOLUTIONS


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uIF1F0_zQ3o

The distortions are massively expensive both socially and financially as explained

SOLUTIONS


#3 CURRENCY and CASH and MONEY AT BANK
Zimbabwe has too little Forex and too little money in circulation. This is not necessary. It can be dealt with right away.

I was congratulated by everyone including one currency official, on this solution:

http://www.chronicle.co.zw/jump-starting-the-economy/



NEW PAGE ADDED
WEALTH BONDS
TO REPLACE TREASURIES


You may be pleasantly surprised by the extent of your ignorance about what wealth preservation means.

Savings must keep pace with National Average Earnings / a Wages Index

Tax free


Imagine that everyone got an average wage rise of 10% and they did not work 10% more hours in return for that. They would be able to repay their loans to savers / lenders using 10% fewer hours at work. That is not fair. 10% interest, tax free, needs to be added to compensate and interest on top to prevent a run of borrowing...otherwise everyone will wish to borrow.


#4.  HOUSING AND COMMERCIAL FINANCE
People think that mortgages must be repaid using level payments - fixed payments every month. But with a variable rate of interest that can lead to a huge jump up in the cost. This has all kinds of devastating consequences that sheds jobs, destroys family and business budgets, ends in broken homes and home repossessions, even bust banks as property prices fall when they ought to be rising. Then larger deposits are asked for next time and lenders' reserves are increased, adding to costs.

For the economy it is like the Dutch Disease without the benefits of an oil strike. When the Netherlands struck oil in the 1970s, the currency rose in price and exporters lost their jobs. The same thing happened in the late 1980s when the price of oil fell and oil exporters stopped buying from other nations. They expected a boom but they got a slowdown. Any re-arrangement of what people are buying slows the entire economy. 

For an aircraft it would be like having it roll to one side when the intention of the pilot was to slow down. It would do both. 

REMEDY
FOR THE ECONOMY IT WOULD BE BETTER FOR BORROWERS TO PAY 1% P.A. MORE. NOT LEAP UP THEIR PAYMENTS.

If you are caught in this trap, ask a friend or a family member to lend you some money so that you can pay the 1% p.a. extra that is needed tp repay on time and the lenders still gets the craz\y increase in the payments as required by legislation.

Then it becomes the same as Rentals - if inflation and NAE were to rise 1% more quickly then anyone would expect rentals to rise 1% p.a. faster and mortgage reapyments to do the same - unless they were organised to fall every year in which case they would fall  1% p.a. more slowly.

Lenders need to learn the full mathematics for lending and repayments. It is available here:

http://ingram-school-illustrations.blogspot.com/p/re-writes-updates-and-additional_8.html


The title is 

GENERAL EQUATIONS FOR THE REPAYMENT OF DEBT.


Normally the equations used are one dimentional - they occupy a vertical line with no chance to deviate onto another axis where the level of payments can be increased or decreased on a regular basis. 

Hence the words 'General Equations' - A second axis has been added allowing payments to vary over time. They encompass every option available for managing the repayments.



#5.   POLITICAL FILM SCRIPT


https://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com/p/the-film-script.html


THIS FILM SCRIPT IS FOR ANY PARTY WANTING TO WIN AN ELECTION BY MAKING THESE REFORMS OR PROMISING TO DO SO.



#6  THE UNIVERSITY COURSE IS AT 

www.nustcce.com
on the professional courses page - top of the list MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN & MANAGEMENT
This is free for anyone sending me an email at edward.ingram2009@gmail.com 


#7 QE and MONETARY POLICY IN THE ADVANCED ECONOMIES


For the advanced economies there is the LOW INFLATION TRAP page.
https://macro-economic-design.blogspot.com/p/low-inflation-trap.html


#8 ANOTHER WAY TO KNOW THAT SOMETHING IS DRASTICALLY WRONG IS THIS:



Financial stability is supposed to increase as inflation and interest rates fall. In fact it gets worse. Hence the low inflation trap - the trap that prevents the Fed and others raising interest rates back to their norm.



Wealth Bonds, savings that increase at the same rate as NAE, and the ILS model for housing finance can remove most of the problem.




The currency pricing problem remains and can also be solved. When inflation rises the value of the currency ought to fall to make imports more expensive but the policy-maker pilots find that the opposite happens - at first, making for even more complications.

THE PRACTICAL WAY FORWARD
Participation in the NUST-CCE course is the way forward for implementation becauset that is where we are expecting the key players to join in the workshops to plan the way out.

The same applies any nation - It is online.


#9 You may explore other pages on this main blog to find out more. The PEER REVIEWS are excellent and Tim Hosking's comparisons with other schools of economics shows that this is way ahead of all of them.



END OF QUICK NOTICE FOR TODAY.



WORLD CAMPAIGN FOR FINANCIAL FAIRNESS
A VIDEO CLICK HERE



JOIN THE CAMPAIGN


The Institute for Global Issues and Solutions told Readers of the May 2018 edition:

“…The world’s economies are chaotic by nature. There are too many targets for monetary policy to be able to cope. This a massive waste of resources. It causes monumental amounts of damage including social damage, ruining millions of families and businesses worldwide every year. Governments fall because of it and their replacements know no better.

The reason is quite elementary, but no one has addressed it before.”
The author goes on to present a unique alternative to traditional financial systems.


A new page has been added on 1st June - the first of a series of published comments and answers given in the public domain to explain the real-world practical implications on the public domains. 

HOW IT ALL WORKS - the entire Ingram Model for a stable and optimised economy. This is far more than is needed to be done to get elected or to protect you and your dearest. You only need safe finance. That is where the campaign starts.

To read about all of the proposals click here: DON'T FORECAST - JUST STEER

We are seeking

1.     Political campaigners – Vote for candidates that support this
2.  Actuaries to learn and teach this at the university we use  for educating the Financial Services Sector about implementation.
3.     Fund raisers
4.     Web developers
5.     Legal expertise
6.     Administr.
ators
7.     Publicists – macro-economic writers
8.     People that know people in high positions in governments and academic institutions
9.     Badge and Emblem manufacturers
10.Clothing designers willing to incorporate the emblem or the badge etc.
and of course:

DONATIONS – Banking details below
The money goes towards: 
  • Creating an active support group to lobby governments around the world.
  • The marketing campaign 
  • Developing a new and better website for news, articles, and reader participation at: www.ingrameconomics.com 
  • Improving the university course at NUST-CCE
  • Further Research and Development


STRATEGY

It is estimated that ANY political party can win an election by doing these simple things:

#1 Protect savings and pensions while at the same time
#2 Reducing the cost of the national debt, and
#3 Making banks safer.

How to do this:

Debt and savings are index-linked to National Average Earnings, NAE. A prime mortgage will cost the borrower more than this in interest, so:
  1. A government can pay 1% interest and save money
  2. Pension funds can invest and pay benefits that rise as if the retirees were still working
  3. Capital invested / saved is similarly protected for life



#2 Protect borrowers and the construction sector – by allowing the Ingram Lending and Savings (ILS) Model for Housing and Commercial Finance to operate in place of the unsafe model that we have today.

This alternative will:
  1. Protect families from Arrears and Home Repossessions
  2. Stabilise a third of some national economies 
  3. Provide more housing

PROOF:


AT ELECTION TIME

# For the ruling party delivery wins
# For the opposition promises win

There are three election winners available:
  1. Boost the economy
  2. Provide safe savings, safe pensions, and 
  3. Provide safe, affordable, housing finance.



FACT: if you do the latter (2 and 3) you also do the former - grow the economy.
FACT: IT IS EASY TO DO

NOBEL PRIZE NOMINATIONS
Two universities have already offered to nominate the writer of the book due out shortly, and entitled HOW TO END THEWORLD’S FINANCIAL CHAOS for a Nobel Prize in economics. The implications for peace could be even more important. 

DONATIONS


Click here to see where your donation will be spent and how to pay

The Ingram Economics Limited UK current account is:
23-69-72 07698446

We are in the process of setting up a paypal account to payments@ingrameconomics.com

CREDIT OR DEBIT CARDS AND INVOICES
As we understand it, people can use paypal now, but if you want an “invoice” created please send an email to invoicerequest@ingrameconomics.com stating what the amount want to donate.  We can then create that and return it so that you can donate using paypal, credit, or debit card.

Payment for Zimbabweans can be by ecocash to \
Edward Ingram using 0772 900 000. 

OR to 
Steward Bank
Account Name: Edward C D Ingram
Account Number: 1007873227
Fife St Bulawayo
Currency: US$ or local equivalent.


TOGETHER
We can change the world.


Please tweet this page (see the bottom of the page or just tweet the url) or tweet the BASICS page url - this fascinates everyone. Send this to:  

  • Facebook
  • Government Officials internationally
  • Academic Institutions internationally
  • Personal Friends
  • Nobel Laureates in economics etc. and
  • World peace organisations. 


We will be changing the world.


---------------------------- 



THINGS YOU MIGHT DO

#1. As a Conference Centre / Functions Person, you may ask me to present myself and these ideas to your audience. A fee and costs will be payable.


#2. As a media person or publisher, you may help to spread the word. You may interview me online using Skype (edwarding2) or Google Hangouts (use my email address).

#3. As a university you may include such information in your degree courses – as two Zimbabwean universities are planning to do, and as at least one American lecturer says he wants to.

#4 Join Edward's LinkedIn Campaign Group – search for “CFF CAMPAIGN FOR FINANCIAL FAIRNESS AT LINKEDIN" OR FOR "MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN AT LINKEDIN”

#5. As a lecturer, you may teach what you learn from my website, my group, my university course which is a certified course with examinations and a rating, and any other publications.

#6. Take the university Course 
This is an online distance- learning university course 
www.nustcce.com – look for professional courses then find ‘MACRO-ECONOMIC DESIGN & MANAGEMENT’


#7. As a government official, you may also do the course and you can have your nation's financial institutions do it so that they can help to plan a way forward towards implementing these changes for your economy. And so that they know and understand what is needed from them.

#8. Tweet and put on Facebook any of these pages. Click below for this page or at the end of any other page for that page.

#9 DONATE MONEY GIVING BANK REF: 'DONATION

The Ingram Economics Limited current account is:
23-69-72 07698446

We are in the process of setting up a paypal account to payments@ingrameconomics.com

CREDIT OR DEBIT CARDS AND INVOICES
As we understand it, people can use paypal now, but if you want an “invoice” created please send an email to invoicerequest@ingrameconomics.com stating what the amount want to donate.  We can then create that and return it so that you can donate using paypal, credit, or debit card.

Payment for Zimbabweans can be by ecocash to \
Edward Ingram using 0772 900 000. 

OR to 
Steward Bank
Account Name: Edward C D Ingram
Account Number: 1007873227
Fife St Bulawayo


Currency: US$ or local equivalent.

The money goes towards: 
  • Creating an active support group to lobby governments around the world.


Financial fairness means savings and pensions which work and homes and businesses which are not taken from the people in a needless financial crisis or just a raised rate of interest - for example.

  • The marketing campaigns 
  • Developing a new and better website for news, articles, and reader participation at: www.ingrameconomics.com 
  • Providing the university course 
  • Further Research and Development

CONTACT DETAILS ARE GIVEN BELOW



COPYRIGHT: Provided that you acknowledge the authors, that you fairly represent the views expressed and that you credit the Macro-economic Design Research Group (and where relevant any original source of the article in question) with due prominence, you may freely quote from articles on this website.
CONTACT
Edward C D Ingram travels a lot
Tel:+26329 2230487 at times but +27 12 547 5816 at other times
Cell: +263772900000 at times but +27 749660660 at other times
WhatsApp 00263 722 900 000 at all times
Skype: edwarding2 any time. Free download www.skype4free.com
email: edward@ingrameconomics.com
Google Hangouts: edward.ingram2009@gmail.com

Edward is available for seminar/workshop presentations


Please Tweet this page – see below. Please take it to Facebook, etc.